Yearly Consumer Reports predicts the short-term reliability of motor vehicle models for the new model year. This predicted reliability is based on the infrequency of serious problems in the previous three model years, as reported in a survey of its subscribers.

When data are missing or insufficient for one or more model years, short-term predicted reliability is based on fewer than the last three model years. In some cases, it is based on a single year, mainly when a model is new or recently restyled.

Based on reliability predictions for the 2011 model year, CR’s top ten small cars are listed below. The list omits all models whose reliability prediction is based on only one year.

Consumer Reports’ Top 10 Small Cars

• The Toyota Yaris, a 2- or 4-door sedan or hatchback
• The Honda Fit, a 4-door hatchback
• Toyota Motor Corporation’s Scion xD, a 4-door hatchback
• The Honda Civic Coupe
• The Honda Civic sedan
• Toyota Scion xB, a boxy truck
• The non-turbo Subaru Impreza, a sedan or station wagon
• The Mazda3 sedan
• The Toyota Corolla, a sedan
• The Hyundai Elantra wagon

CR’s next 5 are also of remarkable reliability. Is it so:

• The Toyota Matrix, a wagon
• The Mazda3 hatchback
• The Nissan Sentra
• The Suzuki SX4, a sedan, a 4-door hatchback or a station wagon
• The Ford Focus sedan.

Of the Top 10, Toyota Motor Corporation accounts for 4, Honda Motor Company 3, and Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. (Subaru), Mazda Motor Corporation and Hyundai Motor Company each account for one.

Below are the 2010 car reliability GPAs, based on last year’s survey, of the top performers listed above. In most cases, GPAs are based on more than the most recent three model years and may be a preferable guide for consumers planning a medium- to long-term ownership.

• Toyota Yaris/Echo: a perfect 4.00 in a 9-year data history
• Honda Fit: 4.00 for 3 years
• Scion xD: 4.00 in 2 years
• Honda Civic Fit: N/A
• Honda Civic sedan: 3.75 for 10 years
• Scion xB: 3.78 over 5 years
• non-turbo subaru car: 3.02 for 9 years
• Mazda3 sedan: 3.33 in 6 years
• Toyota Corolla: 3.81 in 10 years
• hyundai elantra sedan and car: 2.38 in 10 years
• Toyota Matrix: 3.40 in 7 years
• Mazda3 Hatchback: N/A
• Nissan Sentra: 2.00 for 9 years
• Suzuki SX4: 3.00 in 2 years
• Ford Focus sedan: 2.38 for 10 years.

The 2010 Consumer Reports survey provides data on 1.3 million vehicles. As a consultation for serious problems, it is highly appreciated by many consumers who plan to buy a used vehicle, as well as a new one. Reliability ratings for used cars based on their 2010 survey will be released in late 2010 and early-mid 2011, if the history of previous releases holds up to the present.

CR’s current short-term reliability predictions for the 2011 model year are based on the 2008, 2009, and 2010 model years.