INTRODUCTION
The status quo is becoming increasingly unsustainable. Experts say the situation is more dire than at any time in the last 75 years when humans have lived with the dangers of atomic and nuclear bombs. Experts warn that the problem with annihilation is not whether it will occur, but when it will occur, unless significant changes are made to the spread of these weapons and the systems to control and prevent their use. The prospects for reforms are not good, but that must change. The obstacles are formidable but not entirely impossible to overcome.
This reality explains why most of us, including the present company, rarely engage with the subject. Denial plays an important role, as does the fact that controlling these weapons is not a local problem. Responsibility for controls is largely delegated to the military and other experts by national, Democratic, and Republican administrations. Jonathan Schell, in “The Fate of the Earth” (1982), pointed out that it is as if there is a monster in the room and yet we have managed to divert our attention from it.
Fortunately, there are some well-regarded individuals and institutions looking for ways to reduce the risks that these weapons will ever be used and, more imaginatively, hope that one day they can be retired.
REAL WELLNESS
Yes, you are reading a REAL essay focused on wellness, a look at the bright side of life-based philosophy. My approach is to promote physical and mental well-being through the use of reason, the pleasure of exuberance, the disciplines of athletics and the art of ensuring maximum freedom. But alas, what good is all that if, by madness or accident, one or more of the 15,000 thermonuclear warheads in existence do what they are designed to do, that is, explode?
For half a century, I have promoted lifestyle strategies of a positive nature aimed at getting better and staying well, for as long as possible. How long this is possible depends on innumerable variables; I will mention only three:
1. Those related to oneself (ie genetics, lifestyle, timely and effective medical care) that are in some way under our control;
2. Those related to nature (ie supervolcanoes, mega-tsunamis, solar flares, earthquakes, global pandemics, asteroids) over which we have no control; Y
3. One related to a human miscalculation (ie thermonuclear explosions) over which existing safeguards are, for a number of reasons, under dubious controls.
Sam Harris, in a recent podcast, described the ever-present threat of nuclear war as the greatest risk we face. The last 75 years that humans have lived with the bomb have been marked by near-suicidal insanity, reckless stupidity, and moral forgetfulness. In “The Logic of Doomsday,” Sam and his podcast guests Robert Perry (former Secretary of State) and Lisa Perry discuss the history of nuclear weapons, the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Cuban missile crisis, the current threat of an accidental nuclear war, nuclear terrorism, unilateral disarmament, deterrence psychology, tactical nuclear weapons, cybersecurity, command and control details, nuclear proliferation, the steps we could take towards security, strategic missile defense, nuclear winter and other topics . I highly recommend this podcast.
Of course, just because the world can end in a week, day, or minute doesn’t mean it’s a waste of time to seek REAL wellness. After all, our luck could hold. For those following gun control efforts, the consensus is that it’s a wonder we’ve dodged the largest bullet imaginable in 75 years. The comic book Rapture will never happen, but something much worse is far more plausible and not unlikely.
When you look at the events, you will find that it is almost unbelievable that it hasn’t happened already. The future is very bright, but not in a good way.
It may not seem like that, at first, but being aware of the risks of nuclear war, intentional or accidental, should be on the REAL wellness agenda as a cause for concern. Specifically, in addition to our pursuits of personal well-being, it is sensible to know the risks of nuclear Armageddon and the ways in which those risks can be mitigated somewhat. Through the policies and politicians we support, we can collectively have some influence, however small our individual efforts.
JFK warned that we must use slogans to prevent “that thin thread that supports the nuclear sword of Damocles from being cut by accident, miscalculation or madness.” He believed that no individual should have the exclusive ability to start nuclear war on his own.
The heads of state of nine countries (that is, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea) have the power to start such a conflagration. Worse still, in the country with more nuclear weapons than all other nations put together, our president is the only one with such authority; no one could contradict his order to use such weapons. It is a small consolation that he considers himself a steady genius, as only he believes any of the claims.
FACTS CONCERNING NUCLEAR WEAPONS
* Together, the United States and Russia control more than 90 percent of nuclear warheads, Russia with an estimated 6,500 warheads, the United States with 6,185.
* Between 1945 and 2019, the US conducted 1,030 nuclear tests; Russia 715.
* The military budgets of the United States and Russia for nuclear weapons and nuclear war between 2013 and 2022 reflect the reality that the large-scale conflict between these two countries guarantees mutually assured destruction.
* The Nuclear Safety Index ranks North Korea and Iran as the highest risk countries among nations that possess nuclear material.
The number of parties that control nuclear warheads (nine today) is a greater concern than the number of warheads, given the volatile nature of global politics.
(Source: Statista, Nuclear Weapons – Statistics & Facts, Erin Duffin, 7/2/20.)
THE DOOMSDAY CLOCK
Scientists at the University of Chicago who helped develop the first atomic weapons in 1945 created the Doomsday Clock. They did so using the imagery of the apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary language of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero). Clock Time is based on an annual assessment of threats to humanity and the planet. The decision to move (or leave in place) the Doomsday Clock minute hand is made each year by the Newsletter Science and Safety Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors. The latter includes 13 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to disasters caused by nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies in other domains.
It is currently set to 100 seconds to midnight.
INITIAL STEPS THAT COULD REDUCE THE RISK OF ACCIDENTAL OR OTHER NUCLEAR WEAPONS
* No president should have sole and absolute authority to launch nuclear weapons. Donald Trump, on his own, could summon nuclear football, open attack option folders and transmit orders to the National Military Command Center. The orders would go to the missile control officers (ICBMs are ready on trigger alert) and 30 minutes later explosions would occur on the targets. Eliminating the exclusive power of the president to launch nuclear weapons, committing not to use them for the first time as a national policy, eliminating ICBMs (expensive and essentially useless except for first strike capability) are highly favored steps. Others include:
* Promote public education about the nature and existential risks of a nuclear catastrophe due to miscalculations, technical malfunctions and / or political errors.
Eliminate work on strategic defenses: Trying to distinguish incoming live missiles from an avalanche of decoys will not succeed, according to experts, including Secretary Perry.
* Elect presidents and other leaders who understand these issues and are committed to trying to reduce nuclear risks.
* US policy should be not to wait for treaties to be developed and confirmed; start reducing redundant / surplus weapon capacity now.
* Support organizations that advance these and other purposes, including the San Francisco-based Plowshares Fund.
Secretary Perry’s granddaughter Lisa, director of an organization that promotes nuclear weapons reform and containment strategies, says “there is a world in which these changes can occur.” Subsequent dialogue and demands as powerful as the current boom in racial justice and police reforms are needed to raise awareness of the existential threat greater today than at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962.
Secretary Perry told Sam Harris on the “The Logic of Doomsday” podcast that every day that he went to work at the White House during the final days of the Cuban missile crisis, he did not expect to be alive at the end of the day. Looking back, the consensus among experts is that the risks of nuclear war during that time was roughly 50/50.
The 50/50 odds that prevailed in 1962 are better than the odds that experts give today that humanity will succeed in avoiding the catastrophic calamity of nuclear detonations.
BRUCE BLAIR
At age 25 in 1972, Bruce Blair was assigned as a Minuteman Missile Launching Officer at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana. His office was an underground bunker, his job: to carry out a nuclear attack if ordered. This experience and years of study, research and work thereafter convinced him that the command and control structures of the major powers presented unnecessary risks of accidental nuclear warfare. In a Washington Post article today, reporter Emily Langer notes that Dr. Blair dedicated the rest of his professional life to reducing the nuclear threat … through rigorous analysis of the command and control system …
In 1999, Bruce Blair received a MacArthur Genius Scholarship. It was highly appreciated by activists, as well as military and intelligence officials here and in Moscow. He was an advocate of removing weapons from instant-trigger alertness and physically separating warheads from missiles. Their goal was to add time to the process to reduce the possibility of error. The Washington Post story provided this information:
“During the 2016 presidential campaign, Dr. Blair organized a letter signed by 10 former nuclear launch control officers stating that they did not believe that then-Republican candidate Donald Trump, if elected to the White House, should be awarded the nuclear codes. He has shown time and again that he is easy to attack and quick to attack, that he disdains expert consultation and that he is misinformed even of basic military and international affairs, including, above all, nuclear weapons, he said the letter. Donald Trump shouldn’t be the nation’s president. Commander-in-chief. He shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear launch codes. He shouldn’t have his finger on the button. ”
(Source: Emily Langer, Bruce Blair, “Leading Voice for Nuclear Arms Control, Dies at 72”, Washington Post, July 21, 2020.)
The Post article is highly recommended, as are other sources of information on the notable Secretary Perry and the late Dr. Bruce Blair.
